Sunday, September 30, 2012

Before You Place Stock In Polls

Every day a dozen new polls come out. Few agree with one another. Many ask if there is even a point to having polls.

Yes, there is a point - it keeps pollsters busy, and it tends to make fools out of a lot of folks.

Seriously, though, any poll should be taken with at least several grains of salt. Many are formulated on voter turnout in a previous election, which may not hold true in THIS election. Demographics also change. And most polls, by design, poll more Democrats than Republicans. Furthermore, being conservative by nature, many Republicans simply will not participate in polls.

For comparison, the following is a list of the top 23 polling sources, and how they ranked in accuracy in 2008

1. Rasmussen
1. Pew
2. YouGov/Polimetrix
3. Harris Interactive
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance)
5. Diageo/Hotline
5. ARG
6. CNN
6. Ipsos/McClatchy
7. (D)/Research 2000
8. AP/Yahoo/KN
9. Democracy Corps (D)
10. FOX
11. Economist/YouGov
14. ABC/Post
15. Marist College
16. CBS
17. Gallup
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby
19. CBS/Times
20. Newsweek  

As you can see, most of the worst pollsters are also the most prolific, and the ones most apt to be found in the liberal media, because they are produced BY the liberal media. Of all 23, only two were accurate almost to a fault - Rasmussen and Pew.   Today's Rasmussen poll shows Obama and Romney in a virtual dead heat at 48-46, in that order.   Contrary to most other polls, Rasmussen has Romney ahead in NH, Colorado, & Iowa.  


No comments: