Saturday, April 5, 2008

The Last Word (maybe)

In today's news, we found the following - bear in mind that much of the liberal mainstream media conveniently overlooked this particular "inconvenient truth":

"Average global temperatures in 2008 are forecast to be lower than in previous years, thanks to the cooling effect of the ocean current in the Pacific, U.N. meteorologists say.

"The World Meteorological Organisation's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, said it was likely that an abnormal cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, would continue into the summer.

"If the forecast holds true, global temperatures will not have risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory."

It has already been determined that 2004 was the 4th coldest year on record, and 2007 the coldest. And now this prediction for 2008. And weather data at NASA shows that the Earth has been cooling for at least 5 years, and maybe as much as 10.

Well, this is what I have been stating for two years - that the Earth is actually in a cooling trend. But that does not mean an Ice Age is imminent, nor does it mean the warming trend won't return - it probably will.

What it DOES seem to indicate is what the sane, reasonable people have been saying all along - it is simply a natural cycle, and nothing to sweat (no pun intended). The Chicken Little's like Al Gore (and the above mentioned Michel Jarraud) and their follower's would do well to admit that maybe - just maybe - they were too quick to jump to conclusions. Then, if it turns out that there is no real threat, they won't look quite as foolish.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Alarmist Response

I have had a couple of people email me that my claims about Antarctic ice caps thickening are just so much BS. And they cite some pretty convincing material that happens to be sorely out-dated.

So, just for the record, the LATEST scientific findings include the following:

Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
Curt H. Davis,1* Yonghong Li,1 Joseph R. McConnell,2 Markus M. Frey,3 Edward Hanna4

Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice-sheet interior north of 81.6°S increased in mass by 45 ± 7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. Comparisons with contemporaneous meteorological model snowfall estimates suggest that the gain in mass was associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12 ± 0.02 millimeters per year.

(1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Missouri–Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, USA.2 Desert Research Institute, University and Community College System of Nevada, Reno, NV 89512, USA.3 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.4 Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.)

Or how about this:

"a recent article by Van de Berg et al. in the Journal of Geophysical Research describes a reassessment of the surface mass balance of Antarctica. The group compared results of the model-simulated surface mass balance for the continent to all available mass balance observations in a recalibration process that allowed them to construct a "best estimate" of contemporary Antarctic mass balance. What was found by the work is striking: the newly estimated surface mass balance "exceeds previous estimates by as much as 15%." The largest differences between the findings of Van de Berg et al. and those of previous studies were up to one meter per year greater"

Or this:

"New flow measurements for the Ross ice streams, using special satellite-based radars, indicate that movement of some of the ice streams has slowed or halted, allowing the ice to thicken, according to a paper in the Jan. 18 issue of the journal Science.
Their finding comes less than a week after a separate paper in Nature reported that Antarctica's harsh desert valleys — long considered a bellwether for global climate change — have grown noticeably cooler since the mid-1980s.
Air temperatures recorded continuously over a 14-year period ending in 1999 declined by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the polar deserts and across the White Continent, that paper said.
Their finding comes less than a week after a separate paper in Nature reported that Antarctica's harsh desert valleys — long considered a bellwether for global climate change — have grown noticeably cooler since the mid-1980s.
Air temperatures recorded continuously over a 14-year period ending in 1999 declined by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the polar deserts and across the White Continent, that paper said."

My point is this - if you plan on using old, out-dated and incorrect assessments to prove a contrary point, do not waste your time. The stats I go by are the most recent available, from the most reliable sources. For example, in 2006 NASA was claiming the ice sheet was shrinking. But in 2008, they have conceded that the interior glacial ice is actually thickening, and average mean temperature has actually dropped.

So, if you wish to add comments, I encourage them - but not if the commenter relies upon disproved information.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

An Important Facet of Success

If you seek success, the first asset you must have is an open mind. A closed mind cannot learn anything. And once you have an open mind, you must then install a BS filter. You only want to let in good, sound, factual information from sources that are reliable for the subject matter. In other words, if you want to know about money, talk with someone like Bill Gates, who has actually made a lot of it.

It is incredibly surprising how many people are dead set against any of that. They do not have an open mind, or they do not use a BS filter, and they refuse to seek out reliable sources of information. If you doubt this, spend a few minutes sometime just following the posts on any "news" story on AOL.

4 out of 5 of the posters will work strenuously and tirelessly to prove to the whole world how ignorant they are, and steadfastly refuse to change. And don't try to use facts - they have some sort of myopia that prevents them from seeing the truth.

For example - and I know this is a touchy subject for some - I refer you to the "Global Warming" controversy. And as much as this will rile some of you, I will provide a few facts here (not theories) that may surprise you. And if you are success oriented, you will refer to the first paragraph of this post before making up your mind. If you doubt the following facts, you will not simply discount, or ignore them - instead, you will CHECK them out, as I have, from reliable sources such as NASA, the National Weather Service, and noted climatologists.

Al Gore says there is a "consensus of scientists" that his theory is correct.

FACT: Only 32% of all scientific papers published on the subject actually agree with Gore - all others either disagree, or are neutral. The only "consensus" seems to be against his theory.

FACT: The term he uses is "scientists". But most of those "scientists" are not CLIMATE scientists. Just because a person is a scientist does not make him or her an expert on climatology. A reptile scientist (Herpetologist) is a scientist, but is unlikely to know anything about climate other than what he sees on the evening weather report.

FACT: Over the last 5 years, the Earth has actually been COOLING. And according to NASA, 2007 was the coldest year, worldwide, since records have been kept, followed closely by the year 2004.

FACT: Even the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations) has acknowledged the previous fact. However, they still stand by Global Warming - probably because to do otherwise would be terribly embarrassing at this point.

FACT: While the thin "shelf" areas of the ice caps are melting, the interior glacial ice is actually getting thicker. This has been proven out by many tests by several scientific surveys in the region by different groups from seven nations, and satellite information.

FACT: The sun waxes and wanes. It always has. Like everything in nature - EVERYTHING - it runs in cycles.

FACT: The orbit of a planet, and it revolutionary cycle, "wobbles". For long periods, the north pole will be closer to the sun, followed by a period where the south pole is closer to the sun. Right now, Earth is tilting with the north pole toward the sun. This helps explain why the Arctic ice is melting more, while Antacrtic ice is getting thicker. Each "tilt" period can last for more than 40 years.

FACT: Most "green" solutions are not green at all. There are no "free rides". A simple, undeniable scientific principle states that whenever you convert one material to another, there is ALWAYS a LOSS of energy. This is why perpetual motion is not possible. So, it requires more energy to make electricity than the energy you get from it. Same is true of fuel cells, ethanol, etc. Before deciding that something is "green", we would all be well advised to consider everything required to create that "green" solution. Is it really green? Unlikely. Some are, but most are not - they are just hype, for companies to make money from panicky people.

Before believing everything you hear, make sure the source is accurate. And make sure you are not being duped by terminology, like "all scientists say...". Ask WHAT scientists. Is it their field of expertise? And do ALL the actual EXPERTS agree? If not, why not?

This goes for all things. Before you accept what you hear or read, take the time to find out the real truth.

Is Global Warming real?

Did Obama somehow NOT hear the hate speech of his preacher/advisor of 20 years?

Is the "surge" working?

Is the "real estate bubble" really bursting? (not in most areas)

Is the economy as bad as the media says? (No - it's not great, but it's not that bad, either. We're just spoiled rotten)

Success comes from an ability to keep an open mind (example: don't agree with a political party just because you belong to it), installing a BS filter (example: don't listen to "chicken little"), and seek out quality information from only those sources qualified to provide it (example: learn about money from Warren Buffett rather than from Uncle Harry who drives a clunker).

The only thing worse than being duped is to dupe yourself by choosing to remain ignorant.