The Employment Numbers - What Is The Truth?

Today's job numbers indicate that 103,000 people got hired in December and the unemployment rate dropped from 9.8% to 9.4%. And every pundit has their own take on this.

Democrats say this proves their strategy is working, that they are creating jobs

Republicans say it is very telling that job growth did not occur until after Republicans rode into Congress in a landslide.

Working stiffs say the hiring was for seasonal workers who have since been given a pink slip.

Objective observers note that while the 9.4% number seems to be a good sign, the reality is that many people have simply stopped collecting and have stopped looking for jobs.

Now I'm pretty sure you knew when you started reading this post that yours truly has his own unique take. So I will end the suspense and just spit it out.

Seasonal help is usually hired from October-November, so that argument does not hold weight. And Democrats had 3 years to create jobs without success, so giving them credit for any small uptick at this point is probably a mistake.

There may be some truth in businesses having more faith in the future because Republicans got elected and tax cuts were extended, allowing them to hire. Maybe. I know it made a difference for me and my business. But I think it goes beyond that...

It was in November that unemployed people were told their benefits were going to end in December (even though it turned out later that Congress did extend benefits). In November, the outlook for people collecting unemployment appeared bleak. And suddenly, many of those people miraculously found jobs in December. Imagine that.

As I have written before, I know several unemployed people, and most of them do not bother looking for work until their benefits are cut off. The reason is one of logic - you can bust your butt for 40-60 hours a week to earn $500 and pay $150 for child care and $50 for commuting expenses, leaving you with $300 a week, or you can collect that same $300 a week from taxpayers and just go fishin'. People are, after all, technically animals. And as any hunter can tell you, animals normally take the path of least resistance unless pursued or driven.

When benefits were threatened, many chose not to gamble the welfare of their families and went back to work.

There are jobs out there. Unfilled jobs. The Department of Labor suggests there are over 400,000 available, but unfilled jobs right now.

I wonder how many of those would get filled if all unemployment benefits were cut off...

I think the Republican takeover of the House and the subsequent tax cuts for businesses has resulted in businesses being more amenable to hiring - after all, every business wants to grow. But I also think many unemployed people whose benefits were threatened chose to nail down the first available job that presented itself.

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