Thursday, April 3, 2008

Alarmist Response

I have had a couple of people email me that my claims about Antarctic ice caps thickening are just so much BS. And they cite some pretty convincing material that happens to be sorely out-dated.

So, just for the record, the LATEST scientific findings include the following:

Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise
Curt H. Davis,1* Yonghong Li,1 Joseph R. McConnell,2 Markus M. Frey,3 Edward Hanna4

Satellite radar altimetry measurements indicate that the East Antarctic ice-sheet interior north of 81.6°S increased in mass by 45 ± 7 billion metric tons per year from 1992 to 2003. Comparisons with contemporaneous meteorological model snowfall estimates suggest that the gain in mass was associated with increased precipitation. A gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by 0.12 ± 0.02 millimeters per year.

(1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Missouri–Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, USA.2 Desert Research Institute, University and Community College System of Nevada, Reno, NV 89512, USA.3 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.4 Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.)

Or how about this:

"a recent article by Van de Berg et al. in the Journal of Geophysical Research describes a reassessment of the surface mass balance of Antarctica. The group compared results of the model-simulated surface mass balance for the continent to all available mass balance observations in a recalibration process that allowed them to construct a "best estimate" of contemporary Antarctic mass balance. What was found by the work is striking: the newly estimated surface mass balance "exceeds previous estimates by as much as 15%." The largest differences between the findings of Van de Berg et al. and those of previous studies were up to one meter per year greater"

Or this:

"New flow measurements for the Ross ice streams, using special satellite-based radars, indicate that movement of some of the ice streams has slowed or halted, allowing the ice to thicken, according to a paper in the Jan. 18 issue of the journal Science.
Their finding comes less than a week after a separate paper in Nature reported that Antarctica's harsh desert valleys — long considered a bellwether for global climate change — have grown noticeably cooler since the mid-1980s.
Air temperatures recorded continuously over a 14-year period ending in 1999 declined by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the polar deserts and across the White Continent, that paper said.
Their finding comes less than a week after a separate paper in Nature reported that Antarctica's harsh desert valleys — long considered a bellwether for global climate change — have grown noticeably cooler since the mid-1980s.
Air temperatures recorded continuously over a 14-year period ending in 1999 declined by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the polar deserts and across the White Continent, that paper said."

My point is this - if you plan on using old, out-dated and incorrect assessments to prove a contrary point, do not waste your time. The stats I go by are the most recent available, from the most reliable sources. For example, in 2006 NASA was claiming the ice sheet was shrinking. But in 2008, they have conceded that the interior glacial ice is actually thickening, and average mean temperature has actually dropped.

So, if you wish to add comments, I encourage them - but not if the commenter relies upon disproved information.

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