Any hope for peace in the Middle East is now gone forever. FOREVER! And any hope of keeping Egypt as an ally - even an uneasy ally - is pretty much gone. And that is a big problem.
No matter how things turn out in Egypt, or who ends up in control, it is highly unlikely that any new government will have a friendly attitude toward America, simply because America supported Egyptian dictators for half a century.
And it is primarily muslim, meaning that any new government is unlikely to be willing to continue to protect the border to Israel. And the dominoes begin to fall...
We have needed Egypt as an ally for several reasons. For example, we need them to help control the border to Israel to prevent the flow of illicit arms. And we have need of the flyover space - it is unlikely any new government will allow us to use their airspace, and that airspace is crucial. And Egypt also virtually controls the crucial Suez Canal, through which most Middle Eastern oil is transported.
And bear this in mind - no matter what happens in Egypt, you can expect its problems to result in a substantial price increase for oil.
I certainly hope I am wrong - but that is unlikely, unless Mubarak can keep control of Egypt - which is also unlikely.
The global implications of a fallen Egptian government are huge.
/
No comments:
Post a Comment